Opponent Preview
Since the final game of this potentially historic season features a team that might or might not try to win– and one that hasn’t been able to do it– there’s no point to my profiling strengths and weaknesses. What I will do is to point to some contrasts between the two combatants.
My game one preview was not complimentary towards Pittsburgh, I said they would play badly (which they did) and said the games would hinge on the number of mistakes the two teams made (it did). My prediction (Steelers 27-12) presumed that the Browns would make two more mistakes than Pittsburgh; the result (21-18, with Pittsburgh just outside the red zone but declining to score) was off by one error.
But the Steelers should finish the season 13-3. Why?
A key reason is the spectacularly weak AFC of 2017– and some very fortunate scheduling. There are years where Pittsburgh would be flirting with 8-8 if they played as well as they did, because they’d have gone 0-4 against Baltimore and Cincinnati. They got to face Green Bay with Brett Hundley and Minnesota in in week two, before the Vikings pulled themselves together. They played Houston last week; the Texans laid down and died in an effort to remove coach Bill O’Brien.
This isn’t a good team, but few of its opponents have been able to play better,
A significant portion of the Steelers’ results (as I mentioned in week one) is purely luck. Some players can’t stay healthy. The best players are durable. But a few players are lucky enough to sail through a career avoiding the mandatory trip to IR that even players as great as Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson and Jerry Rice get.
But a major reason is that Pittsburgh never has to search for an identity– the Steelers always know what they’re trying to do and how they expect to achieve it. The franchise has the same objectives every season. Every unit understands what tasks it is expected to perform; each player understands what his role is.
Because the Steelers have a plan, they know how to draft players who fit their style of play, they know how to teach that style, and they coach technique exceptionally well. Most importantly, everyone knows what the standards for success are– and failure is not tolerated long.
The biggest gap between the Browns and Steelers is the running back unit. For the second season in a row, coach Hue Jackson has admitted that he didn’t run the ball enough and promised to try to do better. Part of the price Jackson will pay for keeping his job is hiring an offensive coordinator who will call plays– and presumably not get overruled.
The Steelers throw more than they run– but not a lot more. They try to keep it 60-40.
Pittsburgh has had periods where it didn’t have a frontline back. They’ve had seasons– sometimes a string of them– where they kept alternating players, trying to find someone to could rely on. But their goal has always been the same: Find a player who can carry the ball 15-20 times a game, average at least 4.0 yards per rush and do enough receiving and blocking to keep opposing defenses from guessing “run or pass” depending on who the back is.
Running backs who perform like Isaiah Crowell, for example– some weeks getting stuffed every play, some weeks adding one long run to the string of stuffs, some weeks looking like the back back in the NFL.. but never consistently productive from game to game, much less snap to snap– would never be allowed to hold a starting job for four years.
If the Steelers had Crowell– and they were getting the same results the Browns had– they would have said “If this is the best you can do, you’ll need to go somewhere else.”
Cleveland is still trying to decide, three years into his career, how often to run Duke Johnson and which runs suit him– or whether to just use him as a receiver. The Steelers would have known what they wanted Johnson to be able to do before they drafted him. He’d either be doing it successfully or be off the team.
But the Steelers wouldn’t be where they are if they’d had injuries to any of their Big Three on offense. That none of them will play Sunday is the thing that gives the Browns what little hope they have.
QB Ben Roethlisberger is 35; he took 21 more sacks (and at least as many hits), but stayed healthy. As noted in the last section, the three best indicators of how a quarterback is doing is rating (93.4), Yards per Pass (7.6) and the Judgement Index (28 TDs, 14 INTs). The first two are fine; the JI right on the border of being acceptable (it should be 2-0 or better)
That said, seven of Roethlisberger’s picks came in two games (5 against Jacksonville, 2 against Green Bay). He had six games with no picks and seven with only one.
RB Le’Veon Bell showed that the Steelers were smart to franchise him. He reported to camp just before game one and wasn’t in shape. He started slow in games one and two (although averaging 3.2 yards a carry is a good week for Crowell) and added six more games with a rushing average below 4.0.
Bell’s struggles running mostly reflect the lack of depth and diversity in Pittsburgh;s offense. Ten players got carries. Nine combined for 88 touches; Bell got 321. They drafted James Conner in round three; before he went down for the year in game 14, he had only 32 carries.
To make sure Bell stayed whipped, Pittsburgh also threw 106 times to Bell (second most targets on the team). He had 85 catches (also second) and 665 yards (third). Without him, nearly half their offense (he had 427 of their 966 plays) would vanish,
At receiver, Pittsburgh is only a tad better. Their goal for 2016 was to find someone– either Martavis Bryant (their #4 pick in 2014, who missed all of 2016 with Puff Gordon Syndrome) or Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster (their #2 pick in 2017) to take as least some of the coverage off Antonio Brown (only 29, but in the 40’s in both receptions and yards). They sort of succeeded:
- Brown caught 44 of 77 targets for 538 yards (12.2 a catch) and three scores
- Giving hope to everyone who likes odd names, Schuster caught 49 of 69 balls for 774 yards (15.8 yards) and 6 scores.
Presumably this due will start Sunday, since Brown is out with a calf injury.
Game one’s stats (6 catches on 8 targets for 41 yards and 2 TDs) proved to be the highlight of TE Jesse James‘s year. He lapsed back into mediocrity after the game.
The best thing about the Steelers is that their line is as good as anyone’s. RT Marcus Gilbert, who has been banged up in five of his seven seasons, appears to have been replaced (due to injury) by undrafted free agent Chris Hubbard, who is playing surprisingly well in his first season as a starter. G David DeCastro and C Maurkice Pouncey returned to the Pro Bowl. Thanks to Joe Thomas’s injury, a spot opened up on the AFC Pro Bowl roster. Undrafted free agent LT Alejandro Villaneuva took it.
LG Ramon Foster had a good year, but he’s 31 and one presumes his days are numbered.
Line coach Mike Munchak has done a phenomenal job with these players, since joining the team in 2014. One could argue that he deserves a second look as a head coach (Tennessee’s front office gave him very little help).
On defense, the Steelers released James Harrison this week. My guess is that head coach Mike Tomlin intended it to send a message: “Yes, our Pro Bowl linebacker (Ryan Shazier) is out for the season with an injury, but you guys are the future.”
While I’m not impressed by the Steeler offense, I am very high on the defense. They finished 10th a year ago in points (20.4 per game). It improved to 5th (18.9), despite giving up 14 points on interception returns. It just doesn’t look impressive either objectively or subjectively.
The run defense stats illustrate why you don’t look at yardage, Pittsburgh has allowed only 1,591 yards rushing (tenth-lowest)– but it has allowed 4.4 yards per rush (28th). That occurs because the offense gets an early lead, forcing the opponent to throw. Teams that stay with the run (or don’t fall behind quickly) run the ball well.
Pittsburgh’s pass defense is a Gregg Williams porno film. They’re second in sacks (50) and tied for the lead in sack percentage (9.6%). Because opposing quarterbacks are always under pressure, they’ve thrown only 18 passing TDs (seventh-lowest) and 15 interceptions (ninth best).
Unless the Judgement Ratio (TD-INT) is 2-1 (twice as many TD throws as picks), the offense isn’t productive. Thanks to Pittsburgh’s pass rush, it’s barely positive.
The big threat is DE Cameron Heyward (10 sacks), but LB Vince Williams has 7.0 and two other LBs (Rookie T.J Watt and third-year man Bud Dupree) both have 6.0.
Here’s the thing I find remarkable: Heyward (2011), Dupree (2015) and Watt (2017) are all #1 picks. So is Pro Bowl player Shazier (2014).
CB Art Burns, SS Sean Davis and NT Javon Hargreave were their #1, #2 and #3 picks in 2016. The other starting DE (Stephon Tuitt) was a #3 in 2014.
The oldest player on the defense is FS Mike Mitchell (30), with Willams, Haden and Dupree next (all 28). In 2015, coordinator Keith Butler took over from Dick LeBeau. They’re one draft away from being fully rebuilt.
If the Steelers could get some help at wide receiver, tight end and running back (they’ve blown pick after pick), they’d be ferocious. If they could find a young player to step in for Roethlisberger, they could roll for years.
Browns Preview
There’s no shortage of posturing and talking big. But there is no reason to believe that the Browns will be more capable of avoiding loss #16 than they were at avoiding loss #1 (or the 14 that followed). The 20-3 beating by a weak Bears team showed how poorly the team has been playing.
It’s obvious– thanks to Jackson making fun of his big run– that the Browns will be moving on from Crowell. Probably (at least as a running back) Johnson too. The odds of them picking Saquon Barkley with their second #1 (or someone with one of their three #2s) seem certain.
The elation of having Puff Gordon back have evaporated as Gordon has done precisely what he did upon returning in 2014– make one or two big plays and loaf through the rest of the schedule. hoping to be traded. Puff has been targeted 35 times, has caught 14 (for 220 yards and 1 TD). He’s rarely run full-speed.
Hands Coleman (22-52 for 287 yards and 2 TDs) had a big game against Jacksonville (6-11 for 80 yards) in loss 10. Since then he’s been 10-25 for 145 yards and a score. If you multiply those totals by 31/3, the the results (33 catches, 480 yards, 3 TDs) scream “part-time slot receiver.”
The Pro Bowl selections came and went. G Joel Bitonio and MLB Joe Schobert are subs who will get to play once the players ahead of them beg off. In a development that surprised nobody (except employees of Cleveland.com), neither center J.C. Tretter nor RG Kevin Zeitler were chosen.
It’s highly likely that Dorsey will pick a lineman to replace RT Shon Coleman.
Defensively, it’s DE Myles Garrett (when healthy), Schobert and not much else. Yes, the defense misses LB Jamie Collins and 1DPR Emmanuel Ogbah. But the other seven positions could have stepped up.
The nicest surprises of the season have been DT Trevon Coley (who looks like he could become a solid run-stuffing lineman) and LB James Burgess (who’s looked a lot better than a 23-year-old undrafted free agent ought to). I’ve seen rasps smoother than FS Kai Nacua but he seems to have a lot of ability.
The saddest surprises are DT Danny Shelton (31 tackles and rarely a big play) and Thingamabob Jabrill Peppers (who looks confused and is usually step late) with DE Carl Nassib (far too many mistakes and too little production) and LB Nate Orchard (not bad, but rarely much good) in hot pursuit.
Game Preview
The strongest argument for thinking the Browns can win is that the Steelers needed overtime to beat Cleveland last season— and the Browns (who had won the previous week) were trying hard to win a second game, but not desperate to avoid immortality.
Thanks to Jacksonville (which got bombed by the 49ers last week) the Steelers have nothing to play for. New England (who beat the Steelers) has the tiebreaker in hand; they won’t lose to a Jets team starting Bryce Petty at quarterback.
The question of honor– “Do you want to be the team that loses to Cleveland?”— is the sort of thing that fans and writers care about more than Mike Tomlin or most of Pittsburgh players. They’re worried about beating the Patriots in the AFC Championship. Making sure game 16 doesn’t leave them shorthanded is their goal.
Pittsburgh can’t play Brown; they would be insane not to rest Bell. They intend to give Roethlisberger the day off (he does not always accept rest days).
So it’s Landry Jones (24-37 for 277 yards and 3 TDs against Ray Horton’s defense, but an incompletion on his only attempt of 2017), with journeyman (seven teams in seven years) Stevan Ridley at running back, throwing to Bryant, Smith-Schuster and James. Pouncey won’t be playing; Foster (concussion) might or might not be available for depth. No one knows how much the defense will play, or how hard.
The major differebce between the 2016 and 2017 Browns is that last year’s team had two players going full steam. Crowell gained 152 yards on 19 carries. Actually it was 85 yards in 18 carries and one 67-yard run… but Crowell was still over 4.5 wit the big run removed. If he’s pouting, he might not come near that.
The Browns also had Robert Griffin playing to save his career– and doing about as well as he was capable at that point. He went 29-40 for 232 yards, with 2 TDs and an INT. Kizer had a decent game in week one; 20-30 for 22 yards, two passing TDs and a rushing one.
But he also took seven sacks– and that was with Joe Thomas at left tackle, and the belief that 2017 the start of a great career. At this point, Kizer is shellshocked.
The temperature was also 63 degrees in game One– and a balmy 41 (with a 1-MPH wind) last year. This year it will be well below zero, counting wind chill.
The Browns could whip the scrubs. But the recipe for winning needs to be followed carefully:
- Lots of running. If they don’t get a better game from Crowell (17-33 in week one), they need to bench him for someone else. It can be Johnson, Matt Dayes, Kizer, Danny Vitale– hey, even Hue Jackson and the four sportswriters who could run 59 yards. Crowell is leaving; who cares how unhappy he is?
- Short, quick passes. The Steelers sacked DeShone Kizer seven times in week one– and that was with Joe Thomas. They can’t have that happen again.
- No mistakes on kicks. Chris Tabor got a punt blocked in game one; they’ve missed kicks, fumbled their returns and let opponents break long ones. None of that can happen.
- Ironclad run defense. Ridley hasn’t made his way through 7 of the 32 teams because he’s so good that everyone wants to share him. The graph of his career rushing average looks like a ski slope: 5.1 as a rookie, then 4.4 and 4.3, then down to 3.6 and then two years at 2.5. Last week he ran 9 times for 28 yards– they simply can’t allow it.
- Better pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks have posted a 102.0 rating against the Browns, getting 7.3 yards per pass and a superlative Judgment Ratio (passing TDs to interceptions) of 27-6. If Jones does anything like that, they lose. It isn’t reasonable to expect the pass rush to get to Jones (the line is too good). But he can’t be allowed to stand back there all game.
It’s not that the Browns (as their media enablers keep moaning) need to play a perfect game in every facet. They just can’t play a losing one.
Assuming the wind is below 10 MPH, it is not unreasonable to ask Zane Gonzalez to hit kicks of 40 yards or less. Other teams manage to avoid allowing 50-yard kick returns for seasons at a time.
Kizer has 9 passing TDs and 5 rushing ones. He also 21 interceptions 9 fumbles and 6 lost fumbles. It is not unreasonable to ask him to go 1-1, and not have that turnover be either a strip-sack or a pick in the end zone, because he threw into double coverage across his body and off his back foot. Could the journeyman running back who believes he is a superstar maybe play like a decent player?
Can the Browns not drop passes that hit them in the hands or chest? If they can’t make a catch, can they at least prevent an interception?
Nobody else seems to have trouble stopping Ridley and James. Could this defense not be the exception?
Could the Browns not commit penalties that wipe out good plays? Not make foolish mental errors?
“Don’t line up offsides– or jump off” does not require enormous feats of skill. It simply require not being stupid.
That might be past the capabilities of this team– which is 0-15, after all. However, these are not unachievable goals.
Game Prediction
Without knowing which Steelers will play– or how hard– any prediction anyone makes is simply their projection of how good they feel about the team.
How well anyone can play in truly awful weather is another asterisk.
Honestly, I would like to see the Browns lose, because going 0-16 would be a black mark for ownership– and a clear symbol of how completely the front office failed.
I’m going to guess– for only the second time this year– that the Browns will win. It’s not because I like the team. I just think they can even screw up a screwed-up season.
Delay of Game 